ShiYaleng Scouts the World

1. The underlying factor of the economy is not going to improve anytime soon. US consumers are not spending, instead they are saving at 6% of earning to offset the break-back debt, or to prepare for more rainy days. 2. A case in point , Japanese products for the affluent are free falling, shrinking by double digits as recent as last reporting month. 3. As US stores start to refill depleted shelves of daily essentials, a small revival is seem in the Chinese manufacturing centres, but the overall activity is dismal. Chinese unemployment is not improving, although the country hinterland can for now absorb a larger number of work-less peasants.4. Yet there is the mirage of unyielding prosperity in China, fuelled by, as one central government economist admitted this week, an outflow of tax payer fund/stimuli money via the state owned banks in terms of easy credits. And the same economist concurred that 20% of the credits went to stock market and 30% to the property market. 5. Who's rec

You have been warned! And now some big shot from the central government come to admit that of all the large outflow of bank loans that occurred in the last 2 quarters, an estimated 20% was sunk to the stock market regardless of underlying economic weakness, and 30% went to property speculation, creating bubbles without fundamentally changing the landscape of the export oriented manufacturing sector, a larger chunk of which is the making of the private sector, nor directed to weave a social safety network that will allow the internal market to flourish. How much of the money from state owned banks will end up in the private coffer of government officials and commie cadets (i.e. brutal capitalist in disguise)! ZG will see run away inflation soon, just as in the US, Japan and Europe. The social consequence will be alarming!!

Some high risks social conditions are brewing up in ZG(China), and depending on how history deals, an explosive condition may ensure. At present, large amount of tax payer equity is being injected into the corruption prone system to stimulate the economy for the imminent goal of shoring up employment. Freewheeling money, possibly funneled from the state controlled banks are ransacking the property and stock market. Meantime, the huge export oriented industrial infra structure with significant private sector participation takes great pain to transform itself to service a far less affluent domestic market, at fierce competition, something the WSJ characterize as being the most efficient in the capitalist history. Redundant workers are pushed back to the rural countries, without the least of social safety network! How long can they remain quiet? It is apparent the consumption end of the international supply chain - US and the European Union - will undergo an extended period of economic st

The argument goes that albeit financial woes that almost bring mayhem to the world, globalization lifted hundreds of millions of people in the third world from poverty. But at what price? When the tradition of austerity & modesty is displaced by a lifestyle of instant gratification that capitalism engenders, long term destitution takes hold! Destruction of the environment, widening of social disparity, break down of ethical & moral values, cultural decadence,… and the blurring of distinction between man and beast, such as what one is witnessing in China, are just some of the humongous costs of globalization. Is there any sense of fairness, when a 100 dollar worth of goods and services (such as computer software) is sold, 90% of the income goes to conglomerates of the first world, while a mere 10% is left to compensate the resources and labor expanded at a third world manufacturing/servicing hub? Globalization is naked exploitation under the disguise of free trade and free acces

The dreaded “D” word is humming in the horizon. Dow is diving , banking and manufacturing in shambles, nominal job loses hits 11.3 in the US (Feb 09 data, accounting for discouraged workers) ,… drums of rescue rumbles but to no avail. We are heading to a severe period of post bubble contraction after the spectacular economic boom marked by collective greed propelled by excessive consumption. Alas, consumption is the foundation of capitalism. US led consumption spree opens up the party of faux prosperity, meantime such culture worked to undermine the long held frugality traditions of billions in India and China. Poor countries come to the party hoping to make strides in “development”, albeit at great cost to the environment. Notwithstanding, for the past decade, leaders and common folks alike congratulate themselves the unprecedented era of prosperity, celebrated the immense charity of lifting millions from poverty, that modernization is within grasp, opportunities abound and wealth wi